Diagnosis and Importance Analysis

If we were testing the low pressure coolant injection system and found that it was not working, our next question would be "What is the most likely cause of failure?" Similarly, if we were designing this system, we might want to know, "what are the most likely causes of failure?" Statistically, the answer to these question are very similar. To answer them both, we can ask the question "Conditioned on failure of the system, what is the probability of failure for each component?" This is known as the importance of the component, and hence this activity is known as importance analysis.


Figure 1. Graphical Model for Low Pressure Coolant Injection System with no assertions.

To do this, we will look at a different view of the graphical model, the directed graph view, shown in Figure~1. This view hides all of the rules, we are just looking at the variables. Notice that all of the variable nodes are now colored according to their failure probability. Variables with high failure probability are red, those with low failure probability are blue. As this is a very reliable system, every component and subsystem variable is blue.

To the left of the model graph is a selection of "drop on tools." To perform an action on a variable, the analyst simply drags the tool icon and drops it over the appropriate variable. So to find out information about the system conditioned on system failure, we drag the "assert failure" tool over the "LPCI-Sys" variable node. Graphical-Belief recalculates the probability of each variable and displays Figure~2.


Assert System Failure Continue with this example and see the effect of conditioning on system failure.

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get the home page for Russell Almond , author of Graphical-Belief.

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Russell Almond, <lastname> (at) acm.org
Last modified: Fri Aug 16 14:35:21 1996